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No. I
Recording October
Why Models Fail
A discounted cash flow depends on forecast growth and a discount rate, and both are assumptions. This episode examines where valuation models break when applied to a real business, and what a forecast claims when it assumes that growth costs nothing.
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No. II
In production
Sleep As Capital
Junior bankers regularly work through the night. This episode examines what research on sleep deprivation shows about judgment, and whether a team that relies on long hours is gaining output or borrowing against later performance.
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No. III
In production
The Adjusted Truth
Adjusted EBITDA excludes items that management classifies as unusual. This episode examines who sets that definition, how it varies between companies and how it changes the multiple a buyer pays.
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No. IV
In production
Managing The Number
Companies shape reported earnings through legal choices about timing and classification. This episode examines how those choices are used to meet consensus estimates and what they imply about the quarters that are not reported.
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No. V
In production
Who Picks Comparables
A valuation based on comparable companies depends on which companies are chosen. This episode examines how different peer sets change the answer, and why the selection is rarely shown.
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No. VI
Recording October
Writers Make Bankers
Much of an analyst's work is persuasive writing about a business. This episode examines what separates strong writing from weak writing in banking and how analysts learn it.
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No. VII
In production
The Confidence Trap
Two valuation methods that agree can seem to confirm each other. This episode examines how one assumption can enter both, which makes the agreement weaker evidence than it appears.
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No. VIII
In production
Disconnected
An experiment in building a complex model with the internet switched off, to test how much a person can recall without searching.